Got rocks in their head

News today that the Nokia Lumia is barely selling shouldn't really come as a surprise. Supposedly for every 1 Lumia sold there are 100 Samsung Galaxy S2's sold. No matter what your thoughts on Windows Phone 7 (I'm fairly neutral on the platform) the fact that Nokia seem to think that people will pay as much, and indeed perhaps even more, for an unknown proposition that an iPhone 4S or Galaxy S2 tells you that the people in Espoo nead a reality check. And soon.

Size Matters

There was a time when manufacturers were pulling their hair out trying to make mobile phones smaller. Handsets like the Ericsson GH 337, Nokia 8210 were noteble for being the smallest handsets on the market when they were released.

With a new smartphone form factor established by the iPhone and followed by a horde of iClones that trend appears to be somewhat in reverse. Indeed many Android handsets are now being launched with screen sizes between 4" and 5", trumping the iPhone's screen which has remained unchanged at 3.5" since launch.

Recent reports that Apple has secured the supply of a large number of 4" screens has led to speculation that the iPhone 5, when it arrives next year will be bigger than it's predecessors. Will that be the case? Well I believe the answer is yes and no and here's my rationale.

Take a ruler to you current iPhone and measure the 3.5" screen diagonally. Now stretch that screen size by an extra half inch and its easy to see that a 4" screen could easily be fitted into the current form factor of the iPhone without compromising much. Effectively we'd lose some of the banner at the top (which houses the speaker) and/or the bottom (which houses the home button). Whatever happens I'm pretty sure that the mechanical home button - a component of questionable durability - will not find a place on the iPhone 5. Indeed there has even been speculation that the button will disappear totally. I'll leave Jony Ives and his team to do the rest.

And my new phone is ....

Some time ago I speculated that when the time came to replace my trusty old iPhone 3GS I might well consider an Android handset. I like iOS but the allure of a new toy that does everything the same as my iPhone at a premium price might just tempt me away from Cupertino's finest. Lo and behold I have now chosen my new handset for the next couple of years of mobile service and it is ... my trusty old iPhone 3GS running iOS 5. So what gives?

Well after two years of reliable service my phone is still pretty much like new. I've upgraded two major iterations of the operating system and everything still runs and performs fine. Best of all since Apple are still selling the 3GS new it's going to be supported for at least another year or two. So go figure droidheads, do you think that you'll get 3+ years of service from your latest IceCream Sandwich munching device? No, I thought not

Flash in the pan

For the last couple of years one of the supposed advantages Android holds over iOS has been its support for Adobe's Flash Player. The argument being that if you want the full web experience iOS just doesn't cut the mustard. The fact that devices that block flash have noticeably better battery life never gets much coverage.

Personally I've never missed flash on my iOS devices, indeed I've even installed a Flash blocker add-on to Firefox on my work laptop. Still this doesn't stop the Flash argument being trotted out every now and again. I wonder how that's going to sound in the future now that Adobe themselve seem to have given up on Flash in favour of HTML5.

Perhaps Steve Jobs was right after all in his open letter on the subject.

iPhone 5

Earlier in the year I speculated as to whether we would see an iPhone 5 or a 4S. That question has now been answered and my hunch that we'd see the former was wrong. I also speculated that we might see an iPhone Nano or cheap iPhone. Again I was wrong. But the most interesting thing is that the iPhone 3GS which is now occupying the low end of the iPhone market is selling like hotcakes in the us *(if AT&T's figures are to be believed).

So droidheads ... I dare you to name a 2 year old Android hansdet that is comfortably running the latest OS and will be supported for at least another 2 years (the lifespan of contracts currently being sold). My 3GS is still going strong and second hand values are still good. As I've previously stated in posts about Mac ownserhip - the upfront costs may seem higher but as a total cost of ownership Apple gadgets are heard to beat.

One trick pony

Some people think that Google is a technology company. Some think that it's a search company. The truth is that it's neither. Google is the worlds most successful advertising company and the vast majority of its profits comes from just two products, AdWords and AdSense. All the rest - Maps, Streetview, Earth, Books, Docs, Android, Chrome, Picasa, TV, YouTube, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc is belly button fluff.

Google acquired Android as a defensive strategy to cover the bases and be able to offer advertising revenues from mobile search. In doing this we're led to believe that Eric Schmidt double-crossed the Apple Board and Steve Jobs. How do Apple respond? Litigation yes, but also product acquisituion. Siri for voice cuts Google out of the search equations and C3 3D maps will cut Google Maps from iOS.

Apple's blanket refusal to negotiate its iPhone/iPad intellectual property and patents to Android maybe high risk but if it comes off we may be wondering where Google will be in ten years time.

The Post PC era

If you read back in this blog you will understand that whilst many people initially dismissed the iPad as a glorified iPhone without the phone, I predicted that it would be a hit. I now believe that iPad (or tablet computer) is primed to replace the PC as the default tool of choice by the information based workforce.

Why? Because for many employees a tablet, whether iOS or Android based, will meet most of the functions they now use their desktops,laptops and blackberrys for. Email, word processing, spreadsheets, voice & video conferencing, BI dashboards and reporting consumption, web enabled data entry, etc. can all now be done using an iPad style device. The tablet is also poised to become a collaboration device in the way that the PC and even laptop can't. More than that I believe that iOS will win out over Android.

Can you imagine software using NFC and SIRI to record attendance, minutes and actions of a meeting and then automatically update time recording/project tracking software of its occurence and cost. I can.

So here's what I'd be doing (and I have suggested this to my CIO).

1. Read the following http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2011/02/07/i-want-my-ipad-avoiding-it-consumerization-pitfalls/

2. Stop handing out Blackberry's. They are the dead man walking of the mobile industry.
3. Put your Windows 7 upgrade plans on hold whilst you evaluate a mobile migration.
4. Pick your mobile os of choice. Yes folks - It's just like the Windows vs OS/2 argument again. iOS or Android. My money is on iOS as it is more secure, less fragmented and Apple will most likely win the current round of patent wars.
5. Incentivise and support a pilot program of your chosen Mobile OS.
6. Encourage employee's to BYOD's to work.
7. Evaluate Mobile BI offerings.
8. Investigate a custom mobile development strategy. The question remains whether you want to develop generic HTML5 WebApps or dedicated native apps (Objective C for iOS or Java for Android)

When September Comes

It’s no secret, if you've read this blog, that I am a fan of the Cupertino based company, together with their inspirational CEO. I love the design of their products and the simplicity of their product range. At home I choose to use a Mac and I also own an iPhone and an iPad.

Does this make me an Apple fanboi. Probably. Am I embarrassed about that fact. Definitely as I'm wasy too uncool. Fanboi for life though? Well no I don’t think so.

My current phone, a 3GS, is getting a bit long in the tooth. Time will tell whether iOS 5 cripples it but even so it is two years old. Therefore I will watch to see what Septembers iPhone announcement brings but just in case Apple disappoints there are certainly plenty of alternatives out there.

One friend, who I still think secretly harbours a grudge about the iPod killing off the MiniDisc, has recently got a Nexus S. Whilst it may not be superior to an iPhone 4 it is certainly close enough and came on a very attractive plan. Another friend has ditched his iPhone 4 and is raving about his new Samsung Galaxy S 2. I must admit it looks good and he is really enjoying the ‘freedom’ offered by Android over the closed shop that is iOS. Another friend is even raving about his Windows Phone 7 device so maybe when Nokia bring out some new hardware that may be worth a look.

I must admit that there are times when I’ve even been tempted by low end smaller 3.2” screen Android handsets like the HTC Legend and Wildfire or even the HP/Palm Pre. The long and the short of it is that there is a lot riding for Apple when September comes.

iPhone 5 & iPhone Nano

The iPhone 5/4GS rumour mill is well and truly alive and most of the debate centres on whether this year update will be an iPhone 4S (i.e. a speed bumped iPhone 4) or whether we will see an entirely new model (i.e. the iPhone 5). There is also some speculation that we might see two new models – an iPhone 5 and an iPhone 5 Nano.

I don’t think it will be the first option. The Android market changes so quickly with new and better phones being released by the week and deals that undercut the iPhone. Apple cannot rest on their laurels and it is not in there nature to do so. The iPhone 3 to 3GS upgrade happened whilst there was a lot of activity in the original iPad. There are no such excuses this last year. Besides what have the iPhone hardware designers/engineers been doing for the last 12 months? The software guys have been busy with iOS5.

So will it be the second option or the third options? Who can say but what is clear is that Cupertino must offer a mobile device at a price point to be competitive with reasonably specified Android devices. Failure to do this will see them lose the battle like the original mac did to the PC.

Travel Happy

In today’s Sydney Morning Herald there is an article discussing the relative merits of the iPad as a travel gadget. Of course the iPad was used as a hook and the comments descended into the usual pro/anti Apple rant.

I have previously discussed the merits of the iPhone as a convergence device but many of the same points apply to the iPad. After all it is just a big iPhone without the phone, isn’t it?

To recap my previous post: A few years ago I was used to lug away on holiday a mobile phone, iPod, PSP, DSLR, camcorder, point and shoot digital camera and occasionally a laptop with all the respective cables and power supplies. I resisted from adding a portable dvd player to this collection. After I got an iPhone I decided to gradually phase out all these devices with the exception of my DSLR.

I now travel on holiday with a combination of iPhone, iPad and DSLR. My phone generally stays switched off. There are obvious advantages of this approach in reduced weight and cost. Also I only need to carry a single charger (my SLR is AAA battery powered) and I invested in an Apple video display cable to which displays the iPhone/iPad video onto hotel TV’s.

As always with convergence devices there are compromises to be made. The pros - iPad battery life, screen quality and build are excellent. The cons - the keyboard is adequate for most tasks but surfing the internet I find inferior compared to the precision of a mouse. Maybe website design just needs to evolve to better satisfy mobile touch screen devices. I also refuse to pay for an SD-card reader that really should be built in as standard.

Am I an Apple fan. I suppose the answer is qualified yes but I’d happily consider the respective Android alternatives out there when the time comes to replace my iPhone and iPad. To avoid vendor lock-in I have so far resisted purchasing content from iTunes and have only paid for a small number of iPhone/iPad apps.

The only device of genuine interest to me remains the Kindle. The iPad is NOT a great eReader. Now only if Amazon would start selling eBooks as cheaply as paper ones.

Where did it all go wrong?

When asked about losing his fortune soccer legend George Best is quoted as replying "I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered". I'd be asking similar question of a company called Palm Inc. right now - only I don't think the answer would be anywhere near as satisfying. Palm's recent results were below market expectations and according to reports they are in the red and burning through their last $500m at the bank.

Back in 1996 Palm introduced a revolutionary low cost PDA device - the Palm Pilot - and it sold like hotcakes. Palm OS was a revelation with its simple and intuitive gui and grafitti was a pretty good stab at handwriting recognition too. The Palm Pilots influence can still be seen in devices like the iPhone today (large screen, no physical keyboard, few physical buttons, downloadable applications, pc syncing, etc). In fact when you think about it the only real difference between the Palm OS and iPhone OS is the replacement of the stylus with multitouch.

Then things started to go wrong for Palm:

- The brains trust left, came back and then and left again.
- The Treo capitulated and added keyboards, aping Blackberry's success, instead of building on the Palm Pilots keyboardless form factor.
- Palm OS stagnated whilst a new Linux based OS churned in development hell. Palm even commited herecy and lisensced Windows Mobile on some of their devices
- The ill-conceived Foleo debacle

The real irony here is that after all the issues related to the stagnation of Palm OS is that they really do seem to have come up with a great successor in WebOS. I might have even been tempted by the Palm Pre it it had been sold here in Australia. I for one hope that Palm can survive and prosper but that seems an unlikely outcome. The best I think we can hope for is that one of the big handset manufacturers becomes disillusioned with Android and buys the company for its IP so that WebOS can live on.

Dark Days at 1 Infinite Loop?

According to some recent techpress articles it's been a week to forget for Apple. Firstly, Redmond launched what appears to be their first viable alternative in the mobile devices space with Windows Phone Series 7 (catchy title, eh?) and then the rest of the also rans (excluding Google, RIM, Microsoft and Nokia) in the mobile phone industry announce the WAC as an alternative to the App Store.

Take this into account with some lacklustre reviews on the iPad and should we be calling an end to the Apple Renaissance?

Well, time will tell whether the Microsoft gamble will succeed but many pundits are already writing it off just like the Zune. Steve Jobs has used the Wayne Gretzky quote 'I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.' and I think Microsoft as skating at where the iPhone has been.

And as to the WAC check out http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/16/app_stores_szzz/ for some thoughts. Also if the OviStore has to resort to giving away the Nokia Maps Application for free to get some traction then how will the WAC fare any better? Nokia reported that there were 3m dowloads of its Maps application last week. This compares to Apple's overall 3bn App Store downloads and 10bn iTunes downloads to put some context around these numbers.

The much more serious threat to Apple in the mobile space comes from Google with its Android platform, despite Eric Schmidt's low key address today at MWC. Android, and a plethora of mobile phone makers, could challenge the all-in-one hardware/software philisophy that Apple has today, just like like Windows and a plethora of PC makers did for the original Macintosh computer. However, there are real differences between the early PC days and the current smartphone wars. Namely:

- different pricing models are at play - Back in the 80's everyone agreed that the Mac was superior to the PC but cost twice as much. Most mobiles are bought on the back of network contracts so unless Android sets start significantly undercutting the iPhone then that doesn't apply here. Indeed given that the mobile phone is something of a status symbol a market awash with cheap Android clones may even be counterproductive.
- Smartphones are as much fashion statements as a utilitarian devices meaning that design of the handset, operating system and application softeware is crucial. Here is where I think Apple have the edge. The key principles at the core of Apple are superior design and controlling the entire end to end user experience.

Will Android overtake the iPhone - almost certainly, but will that be at the expense of Apple. I don't think so. I suspect that it will be Nokia, Microsoft and RIM have more to fear from this weeks announcements.