And one more thing ...

Whilst it's hard to have too much sympathy for the senior management team at Cupertino right now I believe that they are between the proverial rock and a hard place right now with the 'rock' being market share and the 'hard place' being product margin. Let me explain: The rise of the iPhone & iPad from nothing in 2007 to the become the major financial contributors to Apple's bottom line has been nothing short of spectacular. That success has been driven by a relentless increase in iDevice market share and the highest product margins in the industry - especially on the iPhone. So what's the problem? In a word - Android. The iPhone has for many a year beaten all challengers as the best smartphone in the world. This status was certainly challenged last year with the release of handsets like the Samsing Galaxy S2 and now the Galaxy S3 is probably the first handset to be more desireable than the iPhone. Most tech reviews also now rate Android Ice Cream Sandwich and Jellybean at least on a par with iOS. Add to that the recent release of the ultra cheap Google Nexus 7 (with minimal product margins) and we could see the first serious challenger to the 70% plus market share the iPad currently holds. But what about the imminent release of new iPhone and the iPad Mini? Of course the widely anticipated September release of these new products will no doubt be welcomed by the now familair fanboi queues but the reality is that Cupertino faces some hard choice and risks. In truth the 'iPad mini' simply needs to arrive and be priced within a $100 of the equivalent Nexus 7 and it will probably be another stellar success, but will that cannibalise Apple's current iPad sales and margins? More concerning is tha the new iPhone will need to be truly special in order to better the best android handsets already out there. So what do you do when you're between a rock and a hard place. The simple answer is move if you can. Just as Apple moved on from the iPod it will move on from the current iDevices and enter new or stagnant markets. My belief is that we are overdue an Apple "one more thing" moment in this Septembers keynote and that it will potentially overshadow the release of the new iPhone and iPad mini. Will it be a Apple TV releated device? In a word, probably. I believe Apple's next move will place a stake at the heart of home hub computing that has never be fullfilled by the PC or the Games Consoles or the TV. Here's hoping anyway that's the case anyway.

Why Nikon and Canon should be worried

There has been some recent speculation on iLounge that Apple may be about to enter the 'point and shoot' camera market. According to the authorised biography of Steve Jobs the three fields that he most wanted Apple to tackle were Television, Textbooks and Photography. We can speak of certainty with regard to textbooks as Apple has already released iBooks Author. According to tech chatter then an Apple 'iTV' is almost certainly imminent too. But does an entry into the world of photography, particularly the point and shoot variety, make any sense? At first appearance the obvious answer seems to be no. There's no doubt that the smartphone market has encroached into sales of point and shoot digicams. For example, the iPhone is by far the most popular camera that posts to flickr. This is for three main reasons; firstly, smartphones are omnipresent whereas most digicams are only carried for particular occasions. Secondly, our smartphones are connected enabling us to share our photos on our social networks almost instantaneously and finally cameras on smartphones are good enough to replace most digicams, though not DSLR's. So why would Apple enter a class of device that most agree that it has played a decisive role in making obsolete? To answer this question we need to know why Apple and Jobs were interested in photography. Firsly we know that Apple have always placed importance on decent optics in all of its camera iSight offerings. Secondly we know that Apple has produced professional photography (and movie) software in Aperture (and Final Cut Pro) in addition to its consumer iLife products (iPhoto, iMovie). This in itself is quite strange seeing a neither professional product is likely to have made much money for a company which traditionally abandons peripheral product lines. Unless of course these products are part of a longer term strategy. We also know that Jobs was very active player in Hollywood circles given his roles at Pixar and Disney. Jobs was also a very keen photographer – and we know he was never healf-hearted about anything. Indeed he was the official photographer at Larry Ellison's latest wedding. Finally, and perhaps most crucially, we know that Jobs had met with and was impressed by the people at Lytro with their 'light field' camera. Taking all this evidence together it doesn't seems plausible to me that Apple would enter the traditional digital camera market with a point and shoot camera. Where Apple ventures it tends to be much more disruptive. If Apple does release a standalone camera I’d imagine it will be something like a Lytro, but probably with still and video features, that was always on and always connected and had hooks into the Apple entire ecosystem. I'd imagine it would be a companion camera that displayed real-time output on your iPhone/iPad and could be controlled from such a device. Lytro has been around for about a year now and looks very impressive but also very, very niche. The Lytro solves a problem to a question we haven't yet asked ourselves. Time will tell but it wouldn't surprise me if Apple wanted to turn the photography world on its head by producing a new type of camera. If that's the case then Nikon and Canon had best start worrying now.

Got rocks in their head

News today that the Nokia Lumia is barely selling shouldn't really come as a surprise. Supposedly for every 1 Lumia sold there are 100 Samsung Galaxy S2's sold. No matter what your thoughts on Windows Phone 7 (I'm fairly neutral on the platform) the fact that Nokia seem to think that people will pay as much, and indeed perhaps even more, for an unknown proposition that an iPhone 4S or Galaxy S2 tells you that the people in Espoo nead a reality check. And soon.

MS Office for the iPad 2

More thoughts on the topic:

If MS had confidence in their Windows 8 tablet strategy surely they'd hold out the port of MS Office for their own kit. Wouldn't it be the definitive tablet killer app? Maybe, maybe not.

It would be the first time that MS were producing a major product for a platform they didn't control (yes I know that office for mac has been available for years - but it hardly counts). Scary new territory.

Wot no e-mail?

On this day when the Entente Cordiale (sp?) definitely took a hit on the chin let me do my bit for Anglo - French relations by praising a French leader. No not sulky Sarky - who more than likely won't survive his bid for re-election in 2012 - but Thierry Breton, CEO of Atos, who has decided to phase out internal e-mail over the next 18 months. Inspired leadership.

MS Office for the iPad

A few posts back I speculated as to whether Miscrosoft would bring Office to the iPad. According to recent tech news Microsoft is indeed in the process of porting its Office suite onto the iPad. If true this is an interesting development. You would have thought that such a move was counter productive given that it could hold off and port Office directly onto the Windows 8 platform for both PC and tablets.

I wonder if they'll get round to doing an Android port?

You can't be sirious!

When Siri was launched at the iPhone 4S product launch it was dismissed by both Andy Rubin of Google and Craig Mundie of Microsoft. The initial dismissal was along the lines of "people don't like talking to phones" which seams a bizarre statement when you think about it.

Now Microsoft seems to have rethought its objections and is now running a series of TV commercials about the voice integration that currently is in place in the Xbox 360.

I'm not going to get into the semantics of Voice Control versus quasi artificial intelligence but Micrsoft's lame TV commercials really don't do anything to help their case.

Size Matters 2

In a tech interview the late Steve Jobs indicated that Apple had done a whole lot of research on optimal screen sizes before launching the iPhone and iPad devices. As per my previous post I don't think that there is much debate that 3.5" - 4" appears to be the optimal size for a mobile screen.

The debate for tablets, however, seems unresolved with devices between 5" and 10" being launched at various times over the last two years. To anyone following the tablet market it comes as no surpirse to realise that Archos, Dell, Blackberry and others have had no luck with the smaller form factors between 5" - 7". Indeed Amazon's much lauded 7" Kindle Fire has recently come in for some poor reviews to do with poor browsing experience among other complaints. So does this mean that anything short of Apple's 9.7" is inadequate? Well I don't think so and it wouldn't surprise me to see a 7.8" iPad3 - Apple has allegedly order a large number of these screens - released next year complimenting the existing form factor.

Why? Well rumours are that the 7.8" screen was a very close second to the 9.7" screen that Apple launched the iPad with. Also if you think back to the days when a lot of pressure was brought to bear upon Apple to enter the netbook market Apple actually responded with an 11" Macbook Air despite Job's earlier statements that anyting under their existing Macbook range of 13" screens was sub optimal. Anyone like me who previouly owned a late, great 12" iBook or PowerBook would realise the flaw in that statement.

Size Matters

There was a time when manufacturers were pulling their hair out trying to make mobile phones smaller. Handsets like the Ericsson GH 337, Nokia 8210 were noteble for being the smallest handsets on the market when they were released.

With a new smartphone form factor established by the iPhone and followed by a horde of iClones that trend appears to be somewhat in reverse. Indeed many Android handsets are now being launched with screen sizes between 4" and 5", trumping the iPhone's screen which has remained unchanged at 3.5" since launch.

Recent reports that Apple has secured the supply of a large number of 4" screens has led to speculation that the iPhone 5, when it arrives next year will be bigger than it's predecessors. Will that be the case? Well I believe the answer is yes and no and here's my rationale.

Take a ruler to you current iPhone and measure the 3.5" screen diagonally. Now stretch that screen size by an extra half inch and its easy to see that a 4" screen could easily be fitted into the current form factor of the iPhone without compromising much. Effectively we'd lose some of the banner at the top (which houses the speaker) and/or the bottom (which houses the home button). Whatever happens I'm pretty sure that the mechanical home button - a component of questionable durability - will not find a place on the iPhone 5. Indeed there has even been speculation that the button will disappear totally. I'll leave Jony Ives and his team to do the rest.

And my new phone is ....

Some time ago I speculated that when the time came to replace my trusty old iPhone 3GS I might well consider an Android handset. I like iOS but the allure of a new toy that does everything the same as my iPhone at a premium price might just tempt me away from Cupertino's finest. Lo and behold I have now chosen my new handset for the next couple of years of mobile service and it is ... my trusty old iPhone 3GS running iOS 5. So what gives?

Well after two years of reliable service my phone is still pretty much like new. I've upgraded two major iterations of the operating system and everything still runs and performs fine. Best of all since Apple are still selling the 3GS new it's going to be supported for at least another year or two. So go figure droidheads, do you think that you'll get 3+ years of service from your latest IceCream Sandwich munching device? No, I thought not

Behind the times

I love technology but hate the way that it is highlighted and reported on the news. Here's an example. Back in June this year I wrote a blog about the smartphone being the ultimate convergence device. Low and behold the BBC's technology flagship show - Click - just ran a story about the same thing. Only true to form they sat on the fence when it came to the sum up. Typical.

Show me the money!

I'm no Donald Trump, Alan Sugar or even a Jerry McGuire for sure but here's a fact that might just shock you. Sony have made a loss on every single television it has sold in the last seven years. This means that the best way to do harm to them as a company is to buy a TV from them.

So is this an isolated practice? Let's look at some others:

- Amazon are subsidising every Kindle Fire sold to the tune of $50. This kind of makes more sense when you understand that the kindle is a mobile portal to the Amazon shopfront. Nonetheless the fact remains that if it were priced with a reasonable profit margin it would most likely cost another $150 more. How would you feel paying $350 for a Kindle Fire? It doesn't look so tempting now.

- Google have not made a cent out of Android. Again Android is a loss leader (well a giveaway, actually) in order to ensure that the google advertising revenue stream is retained in the mobile world.

In this world of artificial stock market valuations, ipo's, market shares it's worth actually stopping once and a while to figure out that companies have to make money to survive and invest. And the only company I can think of that genuinely does this is Apple. I can't imagine Apple running a product for seven months at a loss, never mind seven quarters or seven years.

Every now and again it'll launch a device that doesn't meet expectations. Remember the iPod Hi-Fi and the G4 cube. However when these misses occur as a company it is ruthless in cutting its losses and focussing on products that are doing well. And that's just as it should be. Loss leaders and market share grabs are fine but somewhere down the somebody needs to show the money .. or else what's the point?

Flash in the pan

For the last couple of years one of the supposed advantages Android holds over iOS has been its support for Adobe's Flash Player. The argument being that if you want the full web experience iOS just doesn't cut the mustard. The fact that devices that block flash have noticeably better battery life never gets much coverage.

Personally I've never missed flash on my iOS devices, indeed I've even installed a Flash blocker add-on to Firefox on my work laptop. Still this doesn't stop the Flash argument being trotted out every now and again. I wonder how that's going to sound in the future now that Adobe themselve seem to have given up on Flash in favour of HTML5.

Perhaps Steve Jobs was right after all in his open letter on the subject.

iPhone 5

Earlier in the year I speculated as to whether we would see an iPhone 5 or a 4S. That question has now been answered and my hunch that we'd see the former was wrong. I also speculated that we might see an iPhone Nano or cheap iPhone. Again I was wrong. But the most interesting thing is that the iPhone 3GS which is now occupying the low end of the iPhone market is selling like hotcakes in the us *(if AT&T's figures are to be believed).

So droidheads ... I dare you to name a 2 year old Android hansdet that is comfortably running the latest OS and will be supported for at least another 2 years (the lifespan of contracts currently being sold). My 3GS is still going strong and second hand values are still good. As I've previously stated in posts about Mac ownserhip - the upfront costs may seem higher but as a total cost of ownership Apple gadgets are heard to beat.

Two trick pony

I've had the misfortune to be upgraded to Microsoft Office 2010. IMO it's a horrible piece of bloatware that tells you all you need to know about what's gone wrong at Microsoft. It somehow manages to muck up the casual and power user experience - which let's face it is no mean feat. However, what it does have on it's side is legacy, legacy more legacy.

If we accept for a moment that we're about to begin a journey in the the brave new Post PC world then we have to accpept that one of Microsoft's two big ticket items - Windows - will also wither on the vine. This will place extra pressure on the Office suite of products. So my question today is how long will Microsoft resist writing a native port of Office for the iPad?

One trick pony

Some people think that Google is a technology company. Some think that it's a search company. The truth is that it's neither. Google is the worlds most successful advertising company and the vast majority of its profits comes from just two products, AdWords and AdSense. All the rest - Maps, Streetview, Earth, Books, Docs, Android, Chrome, Picasa, TV, YouTube, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc is belly button fluff.

Google acquired Android as a defensive strategy to cover the bases and be able to offer advertising revenues from mobile search. In doing this we're led to believe that Eric Schmidt double-crossed the Apple Board and Steve Jobs. How do Apple respond? Litigation yes, but also product acquisituion. Siri for voice cuts Google out of the search equations and C3 3D maps will cut Google Maps from iOS.

Apple's blanket refusal to negotiate its iPhone/iPad intellectual property and patents to Android maybe high risk but if it comes off we may be wondering where Google will be in ten years time.

The Post PC era

If you read back in this blog you will understand that whilst many people initially dismissed the iPad as a glorified iPhone without the phone, I predicted that it would be a hit. I now believe that iPad (or tablet computer) is primed to replace the PC as the default tool of choice by the information based workforce.

Why? Because for many employees a tablet, whether iOS or Android based, will meet most of the functions they now use their desktops,laptops and blackberrys for. Email, word processing, spreadsheets, voice & video conferencing, BI dashboards and reporting consumption, web enabled data entry, etc. can all now be done using an iPad style device. The tablet is also poised to become a collaboration device in the way that the PC and even laptop can't. More than that I believe that iOS will win out over Android.

Can you imagine software using NFC and SIRI to record attendance, minutes and actions of a meeting and then automatically update time recording/project tracking software of its occurence and cost. I can.

So here's what I'd be doing (and I have suggested this to my CIO).

1. Read the following http://www.forbes.com/sites/ciocentral/2011/02/07/i-want-my-ipad-avoiding-it-consumerization-pitfalls/

2. Stop handing out Blackberry's. They are the dead man walking of the mobile industry.
3. Put your Windows 7 upgrade plans on hold whilst you evaluate a mobile migration.
4. Pick your mobile os of choice. Yes folks - It's just like the Windows vs OS/2 argument again. iOS or Android. My money is on iOS as it is more secure, less fragmented and Apple will most likely win the current round of patent wars.
5. Incentivise and support a pilot program of your chosen Mobile OS.
6. Encourage employee's to BYOD's to work.
7. Evaluate Mobile BI offerings.
8. Investigate a custom mobile development strategy. The question remains whether you want to develop generic HTML5 WebApps or dedicated native apps (Objective C for iOS or Java for Android)

The Network is the Computer 2

In an earlier post I extolled my beliefs from 1997 that the Network Computer would be big. Of course it flopped and the PC carried on as the main business tool of choice but one of the revelations from Steve Jobs biography is that the iMac that Apple launched in 1998 upon Steve Jobs return to the company was originally intended to be a Network Computer. It's not surprising that given the closeness between Larry Ellison, the NC's father, and Steve Jobs and their shared ambition to take a chunk out of Microsoft that they will have discussed such things and shared ideas.

Of course the price of PC's plummeted and undercut the savings of the NC. So whilst I may have been wrong in my beliefs at least I was wrong in good company - namely Steve Jobs and Larry Ellison.

Technology meets Liberal Arts

Anyone who studies the origins of the Qwerty keyboard will get the irony that they key layout was designed not for humans but for machine limitations of early physical typrewriter (i.e. to reduce interference between the 'typebars').

I've always felt that Apple might have attempted to change this legacy by coming up with an ingenious new way of interacting with a computer via a new sort of keyboard. And in a way they have - but not as I was envisaged. Note that as I've already stated in previous post I'm not suggesting that Apple have invented anything new here. Apple's strength is not innovation but lies in picking up available technologies, usually poorly implemented, and hitting the sweet spot of user adoption which Jobs described as the intersection between Technology and Liberal Arts.

This happened with the original Apple PC's (Keybaord/screen), then with the first Mac's (Mouse/GUI) then the iPhone/iPad (touch) and now Siri (voice). Let's just think about that for a moment. At the intersection of every one of these user interaction is Apple. That's an amazing track record.

So what's next - my money would be on thought interaction - but that's a long way off I guess. Will Apple still be there. I guess that will depend upon just how much Steve Jobs did or didn't control everything at Infinite Loop.

And now the end is near

I've somehow managed to avoid owning a Blackberry all of my career ... until now that is. My current employer is still in the slightly delusional belief that Blackberry's are an essential corporate tool. So I now carry a brand spanking new Bold 9780 in addition to my personal iPhone 3GS which is still going strong.

I expected that there would be pros and cons between the two devices but I just can't get over just how bad the Blackberry is. Nothing is intuitive and the screen is truly awful. Indeed the one thing that should be great, and what Blackberry are reknowned for, is the keyboard. However, even that is crap. My old Palm Treo had a much better physical keyboard.

So if RIM can't make a great smartphone, can't make a decent touchscreen phone, can't make a decent tablet, can't keep their back end servers running then what can they do?

I guess not much - and judging by the latest reports (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/11/03/rim_market_value/) the market tends to hold that view also.