Friday, August 10, 2012

And one more thing ...

Whilst it's hard to have too much sympathy for the senior management team at Cupertino right now I believe that they are between the proverial rock and a hard place right now with the 'rock' being market share and the 'hard place' being product margin. Let me explain: The rise of the iPhone & iPad from nothing in 2007 to the become the major financial contributors to Apple's bottom line has been nothing short of spectacular. That success has been driven by a relentless increase in iDevice market share and the highest product margins in the industry - especially on the iPhone. So what's the problem? In a word - Android. The iPhone has for many a year beaten all challengers as the best smartphone in the world. This status was certainly challenged last year with the release of handsets like the Samsing Galaxy S2 and now the Galaxy S3 is probably the first handset to be more desireable than the iPhone. Most tech reviews also now rate Android Ice Cream Sandwich and Jellybean at least on a par with iOS. Add to that the recent release of the ultra cheap Google Nexus 7 (with minimal product margins) and we could see the first serious challenger to the 70% plus market share the iPad currently holds. But what about the imminent release of new iPhone and the iPad Mini? Of course the widely anticipated September release of these new products will no doubt be welcomed by the now familair fanboi queues but the reality is that Cupertino faces some hard choice and risks. In truth the 'iPad mini' simply needs to arrive and be priced within a $100 of the equivalent Nexus 7 and it will probably be another stellar success, but will that cannibalise Apple's current iPad sales and margins? More concerning is tha the new iPhone will need to be truly special in order to better the best android handsets already out there. So what do you do when you're between a rock and a hard place. The simple answer is move if you can. Just as Apple moved on from the iPod it will move on from the current iDevices and enter new or stagnant markets. My belief is that we are overdue an Apple "one more thing" moment in this Septembers keynote and that it will potentially overshadow the release of the new iPhone and iPad mini. Will it be a Apple TV releated device? In a word, probably. I believe Apple's next move will place a stake at the heart of home hub computing that has never be fullfilled by the PC or the Games Consoles or the TV. Here's hoping anyway that's the case anyway.